2011 Oscar Predictions February 24, 2011

It is last-minute here, and I may edit this post again within the next few days, but here are my predictions. It is tough this year because while ‘The King’s Speech’ is a good film, there are at least three that are more worthy of the win.

Best Picture: The King’s Speech
It is hard to ignore the strength of this film at this point. ‘The Social Network’ is a far superior film and it would be a huge win. But all signs point to the period piece.

Best Director: David Fincher, for ‘The Social Network’
Going against the consensus here. This is a pick from my gut. Tom Hooper won the DGA and is the safe money bet, but here we are.

Best Actor: Colin Firth
No real question here.

Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Again, no real question. She was the best part of ‘Black Swan’ and it was a great role.

Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush
Am I the only one who thought ‘The Fighter’ was trite and insipid? Christian Bale had a good performance, but other than losing a lot of weight, it wasn’t too challenging. Geoffrey Rush’s role is much more memorable.

Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
Hailee Steinfeld would be a great win for her role in ‘True Grit’, but it’s hard to ignore the build-up to this point.

Original Screenplay: David Seidler, for ‘The King’s Speech’
A good win for the film here.

Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, for ‘The Social Network’
Best film of the year. Best script of the year. Funny, poetic, caustic, and completely entertaining.

Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, for ‘The Social Network’
The film hinges on its editing and is brilliantly efficient.

Cinematography: Roger Deakins, for ‘True Grit’
Is anyone else more due for a win than this great artist?

(Note: The following categories are educated guesses, as I have not been following the race closely this year.)

Art Direction: The King’s Speech
Sound Mixing: True Grit
Sound Editing: Inception
Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Original Score: The Social Network
Foreign Language Film: Incendies
Documentary Feature: Exit Through the Gift Shop (completely deserving)
Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Visual Effects: Inception
Makeup: The Way Back???
Original Song: “I See the Light” from Tangled
Live Action Short: The Confession
Documentary Short: Strangers No More
Animated Short: Day & Night

2011 Oscar Nominations: Mostly Good January 25, 2011

The 2011 Oscar nominations were announced, and there are a couple surprises. Most of the nominations are great, and you can see the full list here.

A few key categories (these are not predictions)….

Best Picture

* “Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
* “The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
* “Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
* “The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
* “The King’s Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
* “127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
* “The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
* “Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
* “True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
* “Winter’s Bone” Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

I’m glad the truly deserving movies were nominated (‘127 Hours,’ ‘The Social Network,’ ‘True Grit,’ ‘Toy Story 3,’ ‘The Kids Are All Right,’ ‘Black Swan’), but surprised the mundane ‘The Fighter’ was nominated. ‘Inception’ doesn’t deserve to be on any list, but I’m not surprised it made the cut.

Directing

* “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
* “The Fighter” David O. Russell
* “The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper
* “The Social Network” David Fincher
* “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Again, why the love for ‘The Fighter’? However, no Christopher Nolan, which thrills me. 4 out of 5 deserving directors isn’t bad.

Actor in a Leading Role

* Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
* Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
* Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
* Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
* James Franco in “127 Hours”

Actor in a Supporting Role

* Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
* John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
* Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
* Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
* Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”

Actress in a Leading Role

* Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
* Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
* Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
* Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
* Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Actress in a Supporting Role

* Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
* Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
* Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
* Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
* Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

All the Lead Actor nominees are great, and Colin Firth will win without question. Supporting Actor is tough at this point, but Geoffrey Rush gave the best performance. Natalie Portman is completely deserving of Lead Actress, and though I think it’s a long shot, Hailee Steinfeld deserves Supporting Actress.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

* “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
* “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
* “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
* “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
* “Winter’s Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Writing (Original Screenplay)

* “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
* “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
* “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
* “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
* “The King’s Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

‘The Social Network’ should clean up Adapted Screenplay without question (though actually, the other 4 nominees are quite good).

‘Inception’ does not deserve a writing nomination. We’ve been over this. The first hour of the movie has characters talking like an instruction manual and it is lethargic the first time, and unbearable once you know how things work. I don’t particularly have a favorite among the original screenplays, but it should either be ‘The Kids Are All Right’ or ‘The King’s Speech.’

My Oscar Results March 8, 2010

18/24. A good ceremony. I blind guessed on the shorts and got one right. Go me.

Every year I think that Best Foreign Language film will go to the critics’ pick, but it never does. Ever. When will I learn?

I knew Sandra would win, but I feel more honorable cheering for Meryl.

‘Precious’ winning screenplay is a joke. It is quite possibly the worst script out of any of the nominees.

Pretty much all the other winners were expected or deserved. As I’ve said so many times, glad QT’s horrible grammar didn’t win.

I didn’t watch the ceremony live though, but I heard it was awful and boring. I am not surprised.

82nd Academy Awards (Oscar Predictions) February 23, 2010

I’ve put this off for a while for a few reasons, the first of which is: This will be a damn weird year. There are ten Best Picture nominees, but also there is a weighted ballot system (rank your films from 1 to 10, as opposed to check your favorite and that’s it). Plus, I’m in Korea so it is unlikely I will be able to watch the Oscars live, so I may as well have some fun with my predictions this year.

It’s also a weird year because the movie winning most of the awards if ‘The Hurt Locker’, which made practically zero money, and the movie winning almost no big awards, ‘Avatar’, made the most money ever. Here’s a rundown of what I think will win and what I would vote for.

Best Picture
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
My pick: Avatar

There are plenty of good movies, but everything nominated has flaws. I’ve listed them elsewhere so I won’t retype them here. ‘Avatar’ deserves to win because it was the most seen movie of the year, by far, and it will be remembered (by some, spitefully) many years from now. I do have a feeling, though, that ‘Inglourious Basterds’ may be closer to the top prize than most think….

Best Director
Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow (for ‘The Hurt Locker’)
My pick: Kathryn Bigelow

She deserves it, she was the best director of the year, give her the Oscar.

Paths of Glory (1957) February 22, 2010

‘Paths of Glory‘ has something special. More than 50 years later, it is watchable and completely original. Was it the best film of 1957? The Academy didn’t think so, giving it zero Oscar nominations. It’s no ‘Twelve Angry Men’, but it’s definitely among the best.

What makes this film so special? Like anything else, it is different. There is a crucial point towards the end of the film where it has to take a stance one way or another. If the three men had not been executed, if the General would have stopped them from dying, it could have been a pro-military film. But he didn’t, the men were executed, and this becomes so clearly an anti-military film.

Review: The Blind Side February 6, 2010

I put off watching ‘The Blind Side‘ because, quite frankly, it seemed like a bunch of the same-old, same-old. Well, it is, but at least it is watchable.

It is not watchable because of Sandra Bullock’s leading role, but in spite of it. She does a good job with the part, but what’s with all these awards? Oh, I forgot, Hollywood is almost completely politics. Bullock has been around the (acting) block and made some decent movies. It’s time to award her career with an Oscar. Sorry, but I’ll be damned if I support that. The award should go to the best performance, and both Carey Mulligan and Meryl Streep were in better and more challenging roles. Too bad Bullock was the only one in a crowd-pleaser.

But enough of Bullock. ‘The Blind Side’ is a moderately true story about a big, unfortunate black child who receives a home, an education, and some love from a wealthy Memphis family. Not surprisingly, the family that helps him is white. I suppose by now you will be aware of the movie and know that that child is Michael Oher, who now plays for the Baltimore Ravens. It ruins a bit of the magic when you know how things will end up (this is why I’m rarely a supporter of biopics).

Oscar Nominations 2010 February 2, 2010

The nominations have been announced and they are pretty much what was expected. Some of the big categories and brief comments below.

Best Picture
“Avatar”
“The Blind Side”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

If there was any sense, ‘An Education’ would win. But we are certainly looking between ‘Avatar’ and ‘The Hurt Locker’, both of which are good films. If it was the traditional 5 I would cut out ‘Precious’, ‘Up’, ‘Up in the Air’, ‘The Blind Side’, and ‘Inglourious Basterds’, but that’s just me.

And it is a shame ‘Up’ finally pushes Pixar into a best picture when ‘WALL-E’ was at least twice as good and snubbed last year. Such a shame.

Best Direction
“Avatar,” James Cameron
“The Hurt Locker,” Kathryn Bigelow
“Inglourious Basterds,” Quentin Tarantino
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire,” Lee Daniels
“Up in the Air,” Jason Reitman

Give it to J.C., in my opinion, but Bigelow has this all but locked up.

Waiting on 4 Stars January 12, 2010

2009 has closed and I have seen most of the films that I want to see, and almost all of the films I need to see. Being in South Korea has delayed this process a bit, but it has occurred nevertheless.

One thing that I have noticed is that I am still waiting for at least one amazing release for 2009. I don’t think it is too much to ask for just one. Sure, there have been plenty of good films, but they have all lacked that little extra zzingh to make them great. It also doesn’t help that we had a phenomenal and a good year before (2007 had The Savages, Zodiac, No Country for Old Men, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, There Will Be Blood–2008 had WALL-E, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire, and In Bruges. All of these are great films).

At least from the list of serious award contenders, let me give a short round-up:

The Hurt Locker: 3.5/4 – Great, but lacking an emotional core.
Avatar: 3.5/4 – Superb entertainment, but a bit too predictable.
Invictus: 3/4 – Means well, but seriously? Yawn.
Up in the Air: 3.5/4 – Good, and Anna Kendrick deserves praise, but lacking the aforementioned zzingh.
Precious: 2/4 – Don’t get me started. This uses every gimmick in the book, is painful to watch, and ends up exactly how you expect.
A Serious Man: 3.5/4 – Love the Coens. This is good, but not their best. They will never best Fargo.
Fantastic Mr. Fox: 3.5/4 – Entertaining. A good flick. Nothing spectacular.
An Education: 3.5/4 – Carey Mulligan deserves every award there is, but the film doesn’t deliver on all the levels it promises.
The Cove: 3.5/4 – Great, and more than anything, important, but a bit lackluster in the middle.
Inglourious Basterds: 3.5/4 – It would be nice if the Basterds were actually in this disorganized movie.
District 9: 3.5/4 – Yet again: Good, but with a predictable outcome and message. I want something unexpected!
500 Days of Summer: 3/4 – Give me a break. Starts good, has some good scenes, but ultimately corny.
Up: 3/4 – Has its moments but hardly up to Pixar quality. Barely places above ‘Cars’.
Star Trek: 3/4 – How is this a serious awards contender? Popcorn flick.
The Hangover: 3.5/4 – Great comedy, but still has a few problems.
Julie & Julia: 3/4 – Meryl is good, but not a good movie at all.
Coraline: 3.5/4 – Very enjoyable.

I realize my comment became more bitter as I got to writing. Oh well.

With all of this said, if I had to pick the best films of the bunch, it would be ‘An Education’, ‘The Hurt Locker’, and ‘Avatar’. I can support any of those three for the win. But is it asking too much to be wowed? I should think not.

Carey Mulligan in ‘An Education’ January 10, 2010

Oscar season is quickly approaching. Having seen almost all of the nominees, I can now speak on some favorites to be nominated or to win. I will make official predictions once the list of nominees is revealed, but for now, Best Actress belongs to Carey Mulligan in ‘An Education’.

She gives a great performance in a good film (3.5/4 Stars). What is so special about her performance is that she has a sweet naivety when she is with David (Peter Sarsgaard), but among her peers something very interesting goes on: She is much more well-read and cultured than any of them, but they are still more mature in their life decisions. Jenny (Mulligan’s character) thinks she has it figured out, how to beat the system of work and boredom, but can a 16 year-old girl really have it all figured out? There are always angles to be missed. As we age we see pitfalls more clearly and can sidestep them in time, but for Jenny, she thinks she can just cruise along. Really, she’s floating, and has to fall eventually.

As I try to be vague and avoid spoilers, instead, check out a great FYC poster and the trailer after the cut.

‘Crash’ in Retrospect June 16, 2009

Whenever I think back on the movie ‘Crash’, I sort of like it. Then, when I watch it, I am infinitely disappointed. It aims high but the execution is so bad. Everything is spelled out so blatantly the characters may as well have their cliche role branded on their foreheads. The movie itself is simply trite.

Also, I am always frustrated when I recall that it won Best Picture. Sure, the most deserving movie rarely wins, but that does not mean it’s not frustrating.

Movies better than ‘Crash’ nominated for Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Movies better than ‘Crash’ not nominated for Best Picture: Match Point, Cinderella Man, Junebug, Syriana, The Squid and the Whale, Memoirs of a Geisha, Batman Begins, The Constant Gardner, Wallace & Gromit, and I would even say King Kong.

Now, I’m not saying all of those are Best Picture nominee worthy. I’m simply saying that they are better than ‘Crash’. I think the 5 nominees for 2005 should have been:

Match Point (best movie of the year by far)
Brokeback Mountain (great movie)
Capote (great movie)
Batman Begins (great movie)
Memoirs of a Geisha (visually amazing, decently told story)